But that doesn’t mean further disruption won’t materialize. What of the risk premium on oil? Traders aren’t pricing big risk into their trades, despite this weekend’s attempted mutiny. Geopolitical uncertainties remain, but there is enough supply to keep prices muted until real rather than perceived potential disruption hits the market. Overall, we are looking at a global picture of lackluster growth, and not even threats to the Putin regime are moving energy prices into bullish territory. economy, a slowing global economy, ongoing inflation pressures, and the continuation of high-interest rates. Still, depending on the size of the disruption, the price upswing might prove short-lived with a slowing U.S. However, supply disruptions within Russia would trigger higher prices. Oil and gas markets are stable, with a cushion on supply. Also, if Wagner is declawed, will that impact other kleptocracies and energy-producing markets? The weekend’s events show the potential for natural resource disruption in and beyond Russia. Today’s questions for energy markets revolve around the impact of internal dissent and Putin’s vulnerability. The optics of a threat of disruption weren’t enough to cause any energy price spikes, but complacency can be dangerous, and though things have quieted, several risks could still rattle markets before summer’s end. Of course, there is the counterfactual-what if things had turned out differently? Yevgeny Prigozhin and his band of Wagner mercenary fighters might have managed to make the march into Moscow and put into motion a more active insurrection against Putin’s rule. The absence of a spike suggests traders were unfazed. ![]() A lot has to do with the market being well-supplied and a weak global economy dampening the demand outlook. Natural gas prices in Europe are down almost 88% below last year’s peak. Brent rose 1% in response to the potential for turmoil, and gas budged and then settled. ![]() ![]() The weekend’s events in Russia underwhelmed energy markets.
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